Instant reasoned probabilities powered by AI
The Forecasting Machine enables you to extract the most forecasting value from high-end LLMs
How it works
The Forecasting Machine uses best-in-class LLMs to generate reasoned probability forecasts grounded in a comprehensive model of the world and informed by the latest news from the most reputable sources.
Key events and drivers are extracted from relevant new stories before prompting the LLMs to reason about a prediction problem using best-practice power forecasting methods.
Regular forecast updates are informed by dynamic memory of previous forecasts and impactful events.
Advantages of AI forecasting over Crowdforecasting
Scale: Ask as many forecasting questions as you want, our AI has the intellectual power to answer them all.
Speed: Our AI forecaster delivers critical insights about your issues faster than human forecasters possibly could.
Explainability: Our AI probability forecasts are delivered with in-depth rationales based on comprehensive LLM base knowledge augmented with the latest news.
Confidentiality: No other humans needs to know which questions you are asking.
Fine-tuning on private data: Share your private data and documents with the forecasting model. It stays private.
No moral hazard: Our AI has no qualms about objectively forecasting distasteful but impactful outcomes (disease, war, etc.)
Long term forecasting: Our AI answers longterm and short-term question with the same motivation and thoroughness.
Focus: Our AI is naturally endowed with machine-like ability to remain intently interested in a question day after day, year after year.
Use Case
Forecasting the USA 2024 presidential election in all 50 states
We are using the Forecasting Machine to predict the winner of the presidential election in all 50 states. Informed by the latest news, the Machine provides daily probability updates and comprehensive rationales.
The Machine's forecasts can be compared with those generated by our prediction market regarding the most strategic battleground states.
Check out today's forecasts here: https://tfm.hypermind.com/ai/elections2024